Scientific Consensus Fails Again

As long as we are on the subject of scientific consensus, let’s take another look at sunspot predictions.  Anthony Watts notes that NASA’s sunspot prediction for Solar Cycle 24 has been revised downward yet again, as the prior prediction proves to be incorrect.

The new prediction for the Solar Cycle 24 maximum predicts a smoothed sunspot number of 58 or so by July of 2013.  In March of 2007, the consensus prediction expected a peak between 10/2011 and 8/2012 with a maximum of between 140 and 90.

Meanwhile, we don’t know what the climate impact of these Dalton Minimum sized numbers may be.

I don’t fault the scientists — this stuff is enormously complex and most of it remains beyond our understanding.  I have a problem with pundits and psuedo-scientists who think they have it all figured out.

Published in: on February 10, 2011 at 1:40 pm  Leave a Comment  

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